Analytics

The price of bitcoin rallied on Wednesday to erase losses suffered during the previous session. As such, the BTCUSD pair climbed back above the $37,000 handle after finding support around $35,600. Today, however, the coin struggles for direction, trading under modest downside pressure as buyers made a pause after the recent ascent.

Volatility in cryptocurrency markets remains elevated these days, with bitcoin oscillating around the $37,000 mark that remains in the market focus at this stage. Earlier in the week, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization fell along with other digital assets on the news about U.S. criminal charges against Binance. Changpeng Zhao, the founder of the exchange, pleaded guilty to money laundering violations. Binance itself also pleaded guilty and agreed to pay $4.3 billion in fines and restitution to the government.

Dip buyers back in the game

After a blow, however, the market rebounded as dip buyers reemerged to push the price of bitcoin back into positive territory. Now, the coin needs to hold above the $37,000 figure in order to stay afloat in the near term, with bulls targeting this week’s highs seen just below $37,900. In other words, the BTCUSD pair remains focused on the $38,000 barrier that has been capping gains for the third week in a row already.

On the flip side, a failure to stay above $37,000 may attract renewed selling pressure in the coming days. In this scenario, traders will focus on the $36,500 intermediate support on the way towards the $35,600 where this week’s lows arrive.

In a wider picture, the digital currency needs to stay above the $34,800 figure that capped the selling pressure in mid-November. On the monthly charts, bitcoin has been adding to gains for the third month in a row, with technical outlook improving since its recovery above the $30,000 mark in October.

Oil prices fell to four-month lows on Thursday to shed around 5% during the session amid persisting worries about global demand after weak data from the US and Asia. After peaking around $84 a barrel earlier in the week, Brent crude plunged to $76.60 for the first time since early July before bouncing marginally.

On Friday, oil futures have settled around $77.50, staying depressed even as the selling pressure has eased. A failure to retarget the $80 handle in the coming days could trigger another slide, especially as risk sentiment deteriorated in the global financial markets.

Wall Street stocks were mixed on Thursday after a solid rally earlier the week triggered by an unexpectedly weak US inflation report. Lower-than-expected US jobless claims data added to signs of more cooling in the US economy, fueling oil demand concerns as well. In China, oil refinery throughput last month eased from the recent highs amid weakening industrial fuel demand.

Four weeks of losses

As such, oil prices are on track for the fourth straight week of decline even as OPEC and the International Energy Agency have both predicted supply tightness in the fourth quarter.

In other industry news, the Energy Information Administration reported an estimated inventory increase of 3.6 million barrels for the week to November 10. This was the highest inventory since August. The agency reported a gasoline inventory draw of 1.5 million barrels for last week. Distillate fuel inventories fell 1.4 million barrels, 13% below the five-year average.

Now, Brent crude needs to hold above the $77 handle in order to stay afloat and avoid another plunge in the near term. Otherwise, fresh multi-month lows could come into the market focus if traders continue to express worries about global oil demand.

The price of gold has been rising for the third session in a row on Wednesday, approaching the ascending 20-DMA that turned back into resistance last week. As such, the technical picture has improved again even as the bullion is still below the mentioned SMA. After a brief dip to the $1,930 zone for the first time in nearly a month, the XAUUSD bounced back above the $1,950, zone, staying on the offensive during the European hours on Wednesday.

Should gold overcome the $1,970 zone in the near term, a stronger bounce could be expected. If the pressure reemerges any time soon, the bullion could see another retreat in the days to come.

On the weekly timeframes, the bullion turned upbeat, trading in positive territory after last week’s decline. On the upside, the immediate significant target is now represented by the $1,974 region where the 20-DMA lies. On the four-hour charts, the XAUUSD pair is now stuck between the key SMAs while the RSI looks bullish, painting a mixed technical picture.

USD hit by inflation

In the near term, the precious metal will continue to hinge on dollar’s behavior.

The greenback struggles for direction today after yesterday’s brief dip below the 104.00 handle for the first time since early September.

The USD index came under severe selling pressure in the aftermath of a weaker-than-expected US inflation report that triggered a plunge in Treasury yields. After finding support around the 104.00 figure overnight, the USD has settled slightly above this figure today, struggling to attract buying interest as traders remain cautious after inflation data that fueled rate cut expectations.

The DXY keeps oscillating above 104.00 in early European deals, retaining bearish bias, with risk sentiment looking positive in the global financial markets. Despite risk demand, gold retains positive momentum, with the $2,000 psychological level back in the market focus as the prices are challenging the $1,970 zone amid a weaker US dollar.

The price of bitcoin rallied to fresh May 2022 highs during the previous session. This time, the ascent was capped by the $38,000 barrier that triggered a local profit-taking, with modest downside pressure persisting on Friday. The BTCUSD pair finished just below $37,000 overnight, holding around $36,500 while deciding on the further direction.

The latest rally was due to a short squeeze amid the ongoing speculations about a spot bitcoin-ETF approval from the US Securities & Exchange Commission. In the process, more than $1.5 million in short positions were liquidated. There was a false media report that claimed the SEC had approved BlackRock’s proposed spot bitcoin ETF.

However, after a rally, the price of digital coin plunged almost 5%. The long squeeze liquidated around $17 million worth of long positions.

Four weeks of gains

Volatility persists in the cryptocurrency markets these days, with investors wondering if and when the US SEC approves bitcoin ETFs. Yesterday, there were reports that a brief window opens for the Commission to potentially approve all 12 spot BTC ETF applicants.

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization looks set to finish the fourth bullish week in a row, staying on an upward trajectory due to optimism around spot bitcoin ETF approval.

The recent break above the $37,000 mark was a significant milestone, but now, the price is yet to regain this level after the latest retreat from fresh long-term peaks. In the near term, the upside momentum looks poised to persist as the market continues to attract attention from institutional investors.On the downside, the immediate support now arrives at $36,300, followed by the $36,000 mark, while this week’s lows lie in the $34,500 area.

Oil prices plunged to more than three-month lows during the previous session to see the deepest decline since early October. Brent crude slipped from $85 to find support around $81.30 earlier today. The selling momentum has abated for the time being, with futures approaching the $82 mark that represents the immediate upside target for buyers.

The key reason behind the recent slide in oil prices were demand fears in China, the world's largest consumer, after Beijing reported a year-over-year drop of 6.4% in the country's exports, marking the sixth straight month of declines and underscoring a slowdown in global demand.

In other industry news, the American Petroleum Institute announced late on Tuesday a rise in US crude oil stockpiles of nearly 12 million barrels, against the market expectation of a decline of 300,000 barrels. As such, the report indicated a fall in oil demand, adding to the pressure in the oil market.

Upside momentum keeps waning

Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration reduced its 2024 forecasts for U.S. and global benchmark crude-oil prices in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. The agency decreased its 2024 forecast for Brent by 1.8% to $93.24, citing heightened uncertainty around the recent attacks on Israel.

Later in the day, the EIA will reveal its weekly inventory report that could affect oil prices in the near term. If the data points at a solid rise in stockpiles, Brent crude will come under renewed selling pressure and could approach the $80 psychological level last seen in late July. In a wider picture, the upside momentum has been waning since peaking above $97 in September, with prices losing ground for the second month in a row. Should geopolitical worries continue to abate in the coming weeks, oil futures may see a steeper decline amid demand concerns and potentially stronger dollar.

The price of bitcoin rallied earlier in the week to stop just shy of the $36,000 mark that was last seen in May 2022. After peaking at $35,950, the BTCUSD pair saw some profit-taking that continues on Friday. The digital coin slipped towards the $34,300 support before steadying. Despite the recent retreat, BTC stays positive on the weekly charts so far, holding bullish for the third week in a row.

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization saw strong demand prompted by the potential ETF approval, as the ETF-related developments have been heating up lately. However, as there are no updates these days, digital currencies turned more sideways in anticipation of fresh related news.

The fact that bitcoin saw another rally, this time to the $36,000 mark, suggests bulls are intended to push the price further despite the persisting uncertainty in the industry, including the outlook for ETF approval. Also, market participants are getting more excited ahead of halving, which reduces the rate at which new BTC is created and earned by miners.

Outlook remains bullish

Now, the coin needs to gold above the $34,000 level in order to avoid a deeper downside correction in the near term. So far, downside risks remain limited, especially as risk demand dominates global financial markets ahead of the weekend. Stocks climb across the regions as bond yields continue to retreat after dovish signals from major central banks.

In a wider picture, bitcoin remains bullish after strong gains in October. Should the BTCUSD pair manage to hold above the $30,000 key support zone in the weeks to come, the medium-term technical picture will improve further. On the upside, a decisive comeback above the $35,000 mark would retarget the coin to the $36,000 barrier, followed by the $37,200 zone.

The price of gold has been correcting lower from mid-May highs seen above $2,000 late last week. After peaking at $2,009, the XAUUSD pair slipped back below the psychological level amid some profit-taking. As such, the bullion has been losing ground for the third session in a row on Wednesday, oscillating around the flat-line after an early dip to fresh local lows around $1,975.

Despite the retreat, the overall technical picture stays upbeat so far, with the precious metal holding well above the key SMAs on the daily timeframes while the RSI has corrected lower from overbought territory to turn directionless, suggesting the prices could refrain from a deeper correction in the immediate term.

Fed in focus

Investors are now cautiously waiting for the Fed decision that will set the tone for financial markets later in the day. Gold would be affected by the event through dollar’s reaction, as usual. The central bank is widely expected to leave rates on hold again, while sending some signals on its future steps.

Considering tight labor market, resilient economy, and still relatively elevated inflation, Powell could express a fairly hawkish tone on rates. In this scenario the US dollar would stage a rally across the board, thus pressuring the non-yielding yellow metal. If so, the XAUUSD pair may settle below the $1,980 area to possibly challenge the $1,950 support zone last seen three weeks ago.

On the upside, a decisive recovery above the $1,995 intermediate barrier would pave the way towards the $2,000 psychological level, followed by the mentioned multi-month high. As for all-time tops around $2,075, the precious metal is unlikely to approach this zone any time soon as dollar demand remains robust, with dip buying in place as long as the Fed stays hawkish.

Earlier in the week, the price of bitcoin briefly exceeded the $35,000 figure for the first time since May 2022 before retreating partially amid some profit-taking. During the ascent, the coin surpassed both the 100- and 200-week moving averages for the first time since April. Since then, the BTCUSD pair has settles around the $34,000 mark that has been in the market focus these days.

The latest crypto rally was driven by investors anticipating the approval and listing of Bitcoin ETFs. This year, bitcoin has seen an over 100% increase to add nearly 20% in the past week alone. Market participants are growing excited about the prospect of being able to buy bitcoin funds that trade on traditional stock exchanges rather than less-regulated crypto platforms. In this context, the latest bullish driver came as the BlackRock ETF for bitcoin appeared on a list controlled by the DTCC, a Nasdaq-operated clearing house for stocks and ETFs.

Correlation with stocks abates further

Meanwhile, the correlation between cryptos and traditional stock markets keeps waning as bitcoin traders continue to shift their focus towards industry news and events rather than be guided by signals from Wall Street. By the way, US stocks have been mostly pressured this week, with the Nasdaq Composite entering correction territory as the tech-heavy index is highly sensitive to signals from the bond market. Earlier in the week, yields on 10-year Treasury notes briefly exceeded the 5% mark for the first time in 16 years, triggering risk aversion across the financial markets.

As for bitcoin itself, the price is oscillating around the $34,000 figure, trying to decide on further direction. The coin stays elevated after the recent rally, suggesting the bearish potential is limited from here. However, downside risks continue to persist even as the digital coin managed to hold above $33,500 during the latest retreat from long-term peaks. In the near term, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization needs to overcome the $34,300 zone in order to retarget the $34,800 zone, followed by the $35,000 psychological level.

Oil prices have been losing ground these days, struggling to attract renewed demand after the recent rally above the $93 handle. Since late last week, Brent crude has retreated back below the $90 figure, deciding on the direction on Wednesday.

The latest sell-off was triggered by renewed demand concerns amid weak economic data from the Eurozone. The regoin’s manufacturing PMI declined to 43.0 in October, compared with the expectations of 43.7 to hit a three-month low. Furthermore, the bloc’s services PMI dropped to 47.8 from 48.7 last month, touching a 32-month low. Against this backdrop, traders feared a recession in the Eurozone will hit oil demand.

On the positive side, the US manufacturing PMI edged higher to 50 from 49.8 in the same period, while the services PMI rose to 50.9 from 50.1. Both indexes came in higher than expected. The data confirmed that the US economy maintains robust growth.

In industry news, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that US inventories fell more than 2 million barrels in the week to October 20 versus expectations for a build of 1.6 million barrels.

Brent looks vulnerable

After a dip to local lows around $87.35, Brent crude bounced marginally to regain the $88 handle as the selling pressure has eased somehow. Still, oil prices stay vulnerable to deeper losses in the near term, especially amid the prospect of a deescalation in the Israel-Hamas war as Israel had delayed a planned ground assault on Gaza.

Should Brent manage to hold above the $87 figure in the near term, a bounce could be expected on the condition that demand worries abate and the dollar refrains from another rally in the immediate term. On the upside, the nearest target is now represented by the $90 mark, followed by the $92 figure.

The price of gold keeps adding to strong gains this week. The precious metal extended the ascent to multi-month highs, rallying for the fourth session in a row on Friday as risk aversion dominates global financial markets.

Risky assets were hit by Fed Chair Powell who signaled an extended pause in rate hikes but said he didn't see rates as too high. As such, markets took his comments as a sign that the Fed was done with raising interest rates. This in turn triggered some profit-taking in the dollar and Treasury yields, although the 10-year rate still remained close to the 5% figure.

Against this backdrop, Wall Street stocks fell overnight, with cautious tone persisting on Friday as market participants continue to digest a mixed message from Powell. Investors were also unnerved by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

$2,000 back in focus

So, the XAUUSD pair rallied above the $1,950 zone to find resistance around $1,985 in recent trading. As such, the precious metal keeps approaching the $2,000 psychological level last seen in mid-May. Should risk sentiment stay downbeat in the near term, the yellow metal may challenge this barrier in the coming days.

On the other hand, as the bullion looks slightly overbought already at the current levels, a local bearish correction could be witnessed before another rally takes place. On the downside, the immediate support now arrives around $1,972, followed by the $1,950 zone and the 200-DMA, today at $1,930.

In a wider picture, the precious metal is finishing the second strongly positive week, enjoying solid gains in October after two bearish months in a row. The prices are now well above the 20-week SMA that turned into support this week, marking further improvement in the technical picture.