Analytics

Bitcoin managed to shrug off some of the recent weakness as buyers reemerged on a dip below the $60,000 mark that was briefly derailed earlier on Friday for the first time since late February. After a bounce, the BTCUSD pair has settled above $64,000, adding more than 5% on the day. At the low of $59,700, BTC was almost 17% below its all-time high.

Volatility in the cryptocurrency market remains elevated these days as investors get nervous in anticipation of a halving. The event is expected to take place on Friday or Saturday. The halving is cutting the current mining rate to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.

Bitcoin halving has historically boosted the price of the leading cryptocurrency. But this time, unpredictable macroeconomic factors regarding the upcoming halving need a cautious approach. Besides, the digital currency reached its peak a month before the halving event, which has never happened before.

Sellers could join the game

Due to the continuing outflow of money from bitcoin investments like ETFs, the BTCUSD pair could fall in the immediate aftermath of the halving. Anyway, the longer-term outlook for the digital coin remains upbeat.

In the near term, bitcoin could get back above the $65,000 figure if the buying pressure continues to build in anticipation of the halving event. By the way, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization saw a brief spike above this immediate upside barrier earlier in the day. The intermediate barrier on the way towards the $69,000 figure arrives in the $66,800 region. On the downside, a failure to hold above $60,000 could attract more selling interest within a possible market strategy “buy the rumor, sell the fact”.

Gold prices rallied to fresh all-time highs around $2,448 last week before retreating marginally amid overbought conditions. The XAUUSD pair looks relatively resilient in early European trading on Wednesday, with prices looking ready to extend the ascent in the near term. Still, the downside potential persists at this stage, as investors may take profit more aggressively after the spike.

On the weekly timeframes, the technical picture stays positive, with wider picture remaining upbeat after reaching fresh all-time highs. On the upside, the immediate significant target is now represented by the $2,415 zone, followed by $2,450. Downside risks are limited while above the $2,300 region. Should dollar demand reemerge in the near term, the bullion may threaten the $2,400 immediate support zone.

Strong dollar caps gold bulls

The US dollar extended gains to fresh October highs during the previous session before retreating marginally. After peaking around 106.50, the USD index has settled above 106.00, refraining from a deeper correction despite overbought conditions. The greenback has been rallying aggressively these days amid safe-haven flows and ebbing Fed rate cut expectations amid stubbornly high inflation. The dollar climbed to fresh more than five-month tops in the 106.52 area, preserving most of the gains so far.

In the near term, the XAUUSD pair could dip below the $2,400 mark should investors proceed to profit-taking. On the other hand, the overall outlook remains upbeat as the precious metal is likely to enjoy demand amid safe-haven flows that dominate global financial markets these days amid geopolitical tensions and waning Fed rate cut expectations. Should the incoming US economic data continue to surprise on the upside, the bullion may ease in the weeks to come.

Oil prices have been directionless this week, looking to finish unchanged. Brent crude has settled in a relatively tight trading range these days, struggling to attract sustained buying pressure amid worries about inflation. Strong US CPI numbers suggest the Federal Reserve is now expected to start reducing interest rates in September, not in June. For risky oil, this is a bearish sign that caps gains at this stage.

Brent crude briefly climbed above the $91 handle at the start of the week before retreating. Oil futures have settled around the $90 figure since then, trading in positive territory on Friday after yesterday’s dip. On the weekly timeframes, oil looks directionless after two weeks of solid gains. Still, the futures continue to hold near six-month highs registered earlier this month just below the $92 figure.

$90 in focus

In industry news, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s latest weekly report, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.8 million barrels from the week ending March 29 compared with a build of 3.2 million barrels for the previous week. A day before, the American Petroleum Institute estimated a build of over 3 million barrels in crude oil stocks.

Earlier, oil was pressure by reports that Hamas and Israel will finally agree on a ceasefire. However, as hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East began to dampen, Brent managed to shrugg of some of the selling pressure.

In the near term, oil futures need to hold above the $90 psychological level that represents the immediate support at this stage. A failure to stay above this handle may bring back more sellers into the game. On the upside, the nearest barrier is represented by the $90.90-$90.95 zone, followed by this week’s highs in the $91.10 area.

The bitcoin price retreated during the previous session to turn steady on Wednesday. At the start of the week, the ascent was capped by the $72,700 zone. During the subsequent retreat, the BTCUSD pair dipped below the $70,000 psychological level that represents the immediate upside target for the time being.

Bitcoin price has increased 65% so far this year. The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs was the biggest driver of bitcoin’s gains so far in 2024.

In the immediate term, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization could be partially affected by fresh economic data out of the United States including an update on inflation at the consumer level which is expected to have increased 0.3% in March on a month-over-month basis. Should the inflation report surprise to the upside, the dollar may jump across the market as higher consumer prices would add to doubts surrounding a potential Fed rate cut in the coming month. In this scenario, the bitcoin price could be pressured marginally along with risky assets as broader risk appetite would be dented.

Halving in focus

Volatility in the cryptocurrency market could remain elevated ahead of a halving event that is anticipated to take place on April 20. The event is set to halve the rate at which new bitcoin is mined, potentially tightening future supply of the token. Halving would reduce the supply of bitcoin by about 450 a day.

At this stage, the digital coin needs to hold above $69,000 in order to refrain from a deeper decline. Otherwise, BTCUSD may get back to the $68,200 zone that capped losses yesterday. A decisive break below this level would pave the way to a deeper retreat in the coming days.

Gold prices rose to fresh all-time highs during the previous session before retreating partially. The XAUUSD pair peaked at $2,325 to lose the bullish momentum amid some profit-taking after another rally. However, the bullion bounced back above $2,300 after a short-lived dip to the $2,286 area, suggesting the precious metal could resume the ascent after a pause.

The bullion continues to derive support as a safe-haven asset amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions. Fears of an escalation in the Middle East sent oil prices soaring as well. Also, investors are cautious ahead of the March jobs report.

Besides, market participants continued to fear the Federal Reserve could hold off on interest rate cuts. Investor sentiment was dented by hawkish comments from a Fed official. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said that he wondered if the central bank should cut rates at all if inflation remained sticky. Against this backdrop, the Dow Jones lost 1.35% overnight to suffer its worst session in more than a year. Following suit, Asian and European equities were mostly lower on Friday.

US jobs data in focus

Gold looks steady ahead of a key jobs report. US nonfarm payrolls are expected to show more than 200,000 new jobs added to the economy in March. Strong figures could bring USD bulls back into the game to push the USD index above the 104.50 region. In this scenario, the XAUUSD pair may settle below $2,300 to threaten the $2,280 support zone ahead of the weekend.

In a wider picture, the yellow metal stays bullish as traders continue to expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates at some point this year. Despite the overbought conditions, the bullion could continue to refresh all-time highs in the weeks to come.

Oil prices surges to fresh late-October highs during the previous session before steadying on Wednesday. Brent crude climbed to the $89.30 area before retreating marginally. The fact that oil futures refrain from a deeper pullback despite overbought conditions suggests that traders may be ready to continue buying after pause.

In part, Brent rallied to its highest level in seven months amid concerns about mounting tensions in the Middle East following an airstrike on Iran’s embassy in Syria, with ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries adding to worries. Also on the positive side, there are signs that oil demand in China may be picking up as the country’s official PMI showed the first expansion in manufacturing in six months.

Elsewhere, the API reported that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 2.286 million barrels for the week ending March 29 versus a draw of 2 million barrels expected after a nearly 10-million-barrel jump in the week prior. Meanwhile, the DoE reported that crude oil inventories in the SPR rose by another 0.6 million barrels last week, to reach the highest point in a year.

Bulls target the $90 handle

As Brent crude has settled slightly above the $89 figure on Wednesday, traders may continue to target the $90 handle in the near term. The upside potential persists at this stage, especially as the US dollar struggles to extend the recent rally. The USD index has steadied on Wednesday after rallying to mid-November highs during the previous session.

On the other hand, a failure to retest the $89.30 region could bring some short-term bearishness back into play, which, however, could become another buying opportunity for the bulls. On the flip side, the $88 mark represents the immediate significant support at this stage, followed by the $87.35 zone.

The bitcoin price holds slightly negative on Friday, oscillating around the $70,000 psychological figure after a retreat from all-time highs seen in the $73,700 area earlier this month. On the weekly charts, the BTCUSD pair looks set to finish with solid gains after two weeks of losses in a row. As such, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization shows recovery from a partial pullback from the mentioned all-time highs seen amid the growing inflows in the Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

Bitcoin looks relatively resilient in anticipation of the halving event, with market sentiments towards the coin turning more bullish again. Halving occurs roughly every four years. Per-block mining rewards are set to drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC on or around April 20. Ahead of the event, market players could take advantage of buying opportunities and set themselves up for future growth.

Downside potential limited

In the near term, the digital currency needs to settle above the $71,000 figure in order to retarget the mentioned all-time tops. On the downside, the nearest support now arrives in the $69,000 region. A failure to hold above this zone would pave the way to a deeper retreat below the $64,000 figure. However, the downside potential looks limited at this stage, with the overall bullish trend persisting.

In a wider picture, the BTCUSD pair could climb to fresh all-time highs in the weeks to come, with the $74,000 figure representing the next target for the bulls. In this scenario, more traders will start to bet on a rally towards the $100,000 amid the halving event. On the monthly charts, the digital currency keeps rallying for the seventh month in a row.

Gold prices rallied to fresh all-time highs above $2,200 last week. The bullion peaked at $2,225 before retreating from fresh tops amid some profit-taking. The XAUUSD pair stays relatively resilient on Wednesday, with prices clinging to the upper end of the extended trading range, struggling to resume the rally as the dollar looks steady at this stage.

The US dollar retains a modest bullish bias since yesterday after posting strong gains during the second half of last week. The greenback climbed to mid-February highs in the 104.50 area before retreating marginally. Still, the USD index remains elevated, holding above the 104.00 figure. A daily close above the 104.40 zone would bring some more short-term bullishness back into the game.

As for gold, the downside potential persists at this stage, as investors may take profit more aggressively after the spike. On the weekly timeframes, the technical picture stays positive, with wider picture remaining upbeat after reaching fresh all-time highs.

$2,150 in focus

On the upside, the immediate significant target is now represented by the $2,180 zone, followed by $2,200. Downside risks are limited while above the $2,100 region. Should dollar demand reemerge in the near term, the bullion may threaten the $2,150 support zone.

Later in the week, US PCE data could affect gold prices through the dollar’s reaction to the release. Should the figures exceed expectations, the greenback may rally as June rate cut expectations would ebb on a stronger-than-expected inflation. In this scenario, XAUUSD may lose some ground to further retreat from historical tops. A failure to hold above the $2,150-$2,145 zone would pave the way towards the $2,120 immediate support on the way towards $2,100.

Oil prices stay pressure for the third session in a row on Friday after a brief rally towards early-November highs earlier in the week. Brent crude peaked at $87.70 and has been retreating since then. Ahead of the weekend, oil futures have settled around $85.80, struggling for direction slightly above the flat line.

Brent is now pressured by the prospect of a ceasefire in the Middle East, a stronger US dollar, and some profit-taking after the recent gains. The US is set to table a United Nations draft resolution for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.

Meanwhike, the USD index climbed to one-month highs to bounce aggressively after a dip in a knee-jerk reaction to a slightly dovish message from the Federal Reserve. Despite the rising inflation, the US central bank continues to forecasts three rate cuts this year. The resurgent demand for the dollar was in part driven by strong economic data out of the United States. In particular, purchasing managers index data showed on Thursday that manufacturing activity grew more than expected in March, while services remained in expansion.

Industry news support prices

On the positive side, US commercial crude stocks continued to fall last week as refinery run rates hit their highest levels since early January. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, US crude oil inventories for the week ended Marср 15 decreased by 2.0 million barrels. As such, US crude oil inventories are about 3% below the 5-year average for this time of year. Furthermore, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventories increased by 600,000 barrels.

In other industry news, following the announcement that OPEC+ will extend the existing voluntary production cuts through the second quarter of 2024, the EIA increased its forecast prices for crude oil and petroleum products for the remainder of 2024 in its March Short-Term Energy Outlook. The organization reduced its forecast for world oil production in the second quarter of 2024 to 101.3 million barrels per day.

In the near term, Brent crude needs to hold regain the $86 figure that represents the immediate upside target for the bulls. On the downside, the nearest support now arrives around the $85 mark that capped losses during the previous session.

Bitcoin holds steady so far on Wednesday after a solid retreat witnessed during the previous session. The bearish bias dominates the cryptocurrency market since last week when the digital coin registered fresh all-time highs in the $73,600 area amid strong demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs. A failure to hold above the $70,000 psychological level triggered aggressive profit-taking that pushed the prices below $61,000 earlier today.

Now, it looks like bitcoin is suffering the inevitable correction before the digital currency could resume the ascent. Overnight, BTC saw the biggest single-day percentage decline since November 9, 2022, when FTX exchange went bankrupt. Amid outflows from the spot ETFs, prices have pulled back more than 15% from record highs reached last week.

Investors now shift focus towards the Federal Reserve rate decision, followed by Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference later today. The meeting will give markets more insight into whether the central bank is still planning rate cuts this year. The Fed’s tone would affect currencies, stocks, and cryptocurrencies as well.

Buying opportunity

Despite the recent downturn in the cryptocurrency market, investors hopefully of await the upcoming halving event. In anticipation of the event, bitcoin's recent retreat from all-time highs looks like a buying opportunity. As such, traders now have a chance to reposition their risk before the halving event that will reduce the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.

In the near term, the BTCUSD pair needs to hold above the $60,000 psychological level that represents the key nearest support at this stage. After an early dip to more than two-week lows, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has settled around the $63,000 mark, holding in positive territory after a two-day slide. A daily close above $63,500 would mark some easing in the downside pressure surrounding the coin.