Analytics

At the start of the week, bitcoin briefly jumped to the $30,000 psychological level for the first time since August to add more than 10% after an erroneous report that investment firm giant BlackRock's bitcoin spot ETF had received approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The market reaction to a fake report suggests that the eventual approval of a spot bitcoin ETF in the U.S. isn't entirely priced into the bitcoin market. The SEC is set to rule on a planned bitcoin ETF by 21Shares by January 10. As a reminder, late last week, the SEC announced that it would not appeal the Grayscale court ruling, suggesting a BTC ETF is very likely to be approved.

After the initial spike, the coin has retreated partially, but the bullish momentum keeps dominating the market these days, with prices staying elevated. The subsequent retreat took the price of bitcoin to the $28,000 zone that acted as support and triggered renewed buying pressure. Since then, BTC has been oscillating around $28,500, looking steadier after an early attempt to challenge the $29,000 mark.

Outlook remains constructive

In the immediate term, the BTCUSD pair needs to hold above $28,500 in order to make another bullish attempt around the $29,000 key figure. Should this level attract some profit-taking, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization may see a pullback below $28,000 before buyers reemerge at more attractive levels.

In a wider picture, the technical outlook for bitcoin looks constructive, with prices holding marginally below this year’s high of $31,800 seen in July. A decisive break above the $30,000 figure would pave the way towards this top, followed by the $32,000 barrier and a longer-term target in the $35,000 area.

Oil prices are back in positive territory since Thursday, recovering recent losses as dip buyers reemerged. Brent crude found a local support around $85.20 to regain the $87 figure earlier today. As the upside pressure persists, oil futures are now targeting the $88 mark that represents the immediate target for bulls.

The oil market is buoyed by new US sanctions against Russian crude exports. The Treasury Department’s OFAC blacklisted two tankers and their holding companies. As such, Russia could see a significant impact on its exports. Also on the positive side for rising prices, data from China showed a 14% year-over-year rise in crude imports, signaling robust demand.

On the flip side, fresh data out of the United States showed that crude inventories rose by 10.2 million barrels in the last week, much higher than expected. Besides, US crude output also hit a record 13.2 million barrels per day in the week. Still, the market shrugged off the bearish release as traders focused on economic data from the US. The report showed that inflation in the country slowed in September, further supporting expectations that the Fed will refrain from a rate hike next month.

$90 back in focus

Of note, oil surged despite mostly negative sentiment in the global financial markets, with Wall Street equities finishing down on Thursday to end a four-day winning streak as Treasury yields resumed the ascent. Asian stocks slipped as well, driven down by mixed-to-weak data out of China. The country’s exports and imports in September while consumer prices in September remained unchanged compared to the same period last year.

In the near term, Brent crude needs to regain the $90 handle in order to see a more sustainable rally towards multi-month highs. A decisive break above $88 would pave the way towards this week’s highs around $89 a barrel. On the downside, the nearest support now arrives around $86.50, followed by the $85.20 zone and the $85 handle.

The US dollar keeps retreating across the market along with Treasury yields in response to fresh dovish comments by Federal Reserve officials. In particular, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the central bank does not need to increase interest rates any further.

Also pressuring the greenback, China is weighing the issuance of at least 1 trillion yuan of additional sovereign debt in order to boost its economy. The plan to support the economy is positive for risk sentiment and this hurts safe-haven dollar demand.

Now, market participants await the release of minutes from the Fed's last policy move and key US inflation data. Should the CPI numbers come in lower than expected, the selling pressure surrounding the dollar will intensify as traders will continue to alter their rate hike expectations.

Also, investors continue to monitor the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas. So far, however, this geopolitical factor doesn’t add to dollar’s safe-haven appeal.

USD could see fresh local lows

As such, the dollar stays on the defensive on Wednesday, extending its pullback from the recent November highs seen around 107.35 last week. Earlier in the week, the USD index derailed the 106.00 figure that now has turned into resistance. The buck keeps distancing itself from cyclical tops and could threaten the 105.00 figure if the pressure keeps building in the near term.

A wider technical picture, however, stays positive so far. But Fed’s possible inaction in November may hurt the medium-term outlook for the US currency. Should the DXY see further bearish pressure, a decisive break below the 105.50 figure would open the way towards fresh local lows. On the upside, a sustained recovery above 106.00 is needed for the buck to see a solid bounce in the near term.

The price of gold keeps bleeding, losing ground for the tenth day in a row on Friday. However, the downside momentum gas slowed this week, suggesting the precious metal may be getting ready for a bounce amid oversold conditions. After sliding to seven-month lows around $1,813 during the previous session, the bullion has settled around $1,820 on Friday, struggling for direction ahead of the weekend.

Despite some stabilization, downside risks continue to persist in the near term, especially as the yellow metal holds well below the key SMAs. Should the price fail to bounce from $1,820, the $1,800 mark could be threatened next if the pressure intensifies in the near term.

A bounce hinges on USD

The outlook for gold continues to hinge on the dollar’s behavior. The greenback struggles these days as a rally in Treasury yields has stalled after rising to 2007 highs earlier in the week. As such, the buck has retreated from the recent nearly one-year peaks seen around 107.35 to settle around 106.50 on Friday in anticipation of a key US jobs report.

The data will set fresh tone for the dollar and its counterparts including gold. Weaker-than-expected figures may push the US currency lower across the board and thus trigger a bounce in gold prices. In this scenario, a decisive recovery above $1,830 would improve the near-term technical outlook for the XAUUSD pair, with the next major target arriving at $1,850.

On the downside, a failure to settle above $1,820 in the near term would open the way towards the $1,800 psychological level last seen in December 2022. However, the precious metal is unlikely to challenge this level any time soon as buyers could reemerge earlier.

The price of bitcoin came under selling pressure at the start of the week and has been struggling since then, albeit staying positive on the weekly charts so far due to the initial rally witnessed early on Monday. The BTCUSD pair briefly jumped to the $28 500 zone before retreating aggressively as market participants opted to take some profit after a rally.

Since then, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has settled above the $27,000 figure, looking relatively steady on Wednesday as the $27,200 support defended the coin from deeper losses. Now, the digital coin needs to hold above the $27,500 region in order to stay afloat and attract renewed demand at this stage.

Strong dollar hurts BTC

The reason behind the latest decline in bitcoin price was the rallying dollar. The US currency climbed to fresh November highs around 107.35 before steading around the 107.00 figure. The safe-haven demand intensified after fresh data showed that there were 9.6 million job openings last month, up from 8.9 million in July. After the release, investors have heightened their expectations of further tightening measures by the Federal Reserve.

Against this backdrop, BTC stayed pressure along with risky assets including stocks. Adding to the downside pressure, US Treasury yields hit their highest levels since 2007, raising concern higher interest rates would push the economy into a recession.

In the near term, bitcoin could make fresh recovery attempts as the dollar demand has cooled somehow in recent trading. On the upside, the nearest bullish target arrives around $27,700, followed by the $28,000 figure and the mentioned high of $28,500. Should the selling pressure reemerge, the coin may threaten the $27,200 support. If this zone gives up, the $27,000 figure may fail to defend BTC from more aggressive losses. In a wider picture, the digital currency stays positive for the fifth week in a row, the longest winning streak since early 2023.

Oil prices rallied to fresh November highs during the previous session before finding resistance just below the $96 mark. As a result, Brent crude finished lower despite some recovery in stocks. However, the selling pressure has already abated, with futures holding in positive territory ahead of the weekend.

Oil stays within a steady and sustained uptrend that has been persisting since late June. Brent crude is slated to finish the fourth bullish month in a row. After another rally to fresh peaks, the prices retreated marginally, still staying resilient below the $94 mark on Friday. The recent drop was in part due to speculation that Saudi Arabia may start rolling back the cuts if prices rose too high.

In industry news, US stockpiles of crude oil fell last week for a second week in a row, fresh data showed. The crude inventory balance fell by more than 2.1 million barrels during the week ended September 22 versus the expected draw of 0.9 million barrels. The EIA also reported a gasoline inventory gain of 1 million barrels, while distillate supplies added nearly 400,000 barrels versus an expected draw.

$100 remains in focus

In a wider picture, the market remains buoyed by a combination of tight supply cand resilient demand. There are now growing expectations of strong fuel demand in China during the Golden Week holiday. On the negative side, there is still concern about more rate hikes from the Fed that would dampen demand and pressure prices.

Also, the upside momentum for the oil market could be even stronger but for a strong dollar. The USD index rallied to fresh multi-month tops this week before losing the momentum. The greenback has been retreating since Thursday as traders take some profit after a solid rally.

Driven by upbeat demand expectations, Brent crude could hit fresh tops on the way towards the $100 psychological level in the coming weeks, with supply shortage concerns adding to buying pressure that intensified after Saudi Arabia announced additional voluntary cuts.

The price of gold keeps losing ground these days, falling victim to a rallying dollar. The XAUUSD pair derailed the $1,900 psychological level for the first time in more than a month, suffering steep weekly losses after the recent sell-off. Last week, the precious metal failed to hold above the key SMAs, so the selling pressure reemerged to send the prices to fresh local lows.

The US dollar keeps refreshing multi-month highs, holding above the 106.00 figure for the first time since November. The USD index extended the recent ascent to the 106.30 zone, staying bullish amid US government-shutdown worries and rising Treasury yields. Also, the greenback continues to attract demand due to its safe-haven status as risk aversion dominates financial markets these days.

Fresh economic data out of the Unites States showed that new home sales and consumer confidence data missed estimates, raising concerns over the health of the US economy as the Federal Reserve continues follow its hawkish path. Against this backdrop, stocks fell along with gold.

Outlook remains cloudy

Should the yellow metal stay on the defensive in the near term, the $1,890 support zone could be threatened. On the upside, a decisive recovery above $1,900 would help improve the technical picture somehow.

In a wider picture, the outlook remains cloudy, especially as the XAUUSD pair keeps trading below the 20-week SMA that has been caping gains since June. If the pressure keeps building in the days to come, August lows around $1,884 will come into the market focus.

However, there is a possibility that gold prices may stage a bounce once the US government resolves the budget issue and thus avert a shutdown. In this scenario, the safe-haven dollar demand would ease, thus pushing the non-yielding metal higher. Congress has until Saturday to figure the issue out.

The oil price has retreated marginally from fresh November peaks seen earlier in the week just below the $96 mark. Brent crude derived support slightly above $92 during the previous session before turning positive, with upside bias persisting ahead of the weekend. On the weekly charts, the barrel has settled around a flat-line, deciding on direction after three consecutive weeks of solid gains.

The market remains supported by production and export cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The two countries extended their production curbs through the end of the year. Also on the positive side, refiners in China keep ramping up processing, thus brightening the outlook for demand.

In the US, according to the EIA report, stockpiles of crude oil fell by more than 2 million barrels during the week ended September 15 versus the expected build of 0.25 million barrels. The agency also reported a gasoline inventory decline of 0.831 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles saw a drop of 2.867 million barrels versus the expected gain of 1.05 million.

Upside momentum persists

On the flip side, the rally in oil prices was somehow dented earlier in the week by a hawkish Fed. The US central bank flagged a further rise in US interest rates this year, also signaling borrowing costs will stay higher for longer. So, the latest meeting boosted the dollar and dimmed the appeal of commodities including oil.

Still, the technical picture continues to point at a robust upside momentum that could push the futures to fresh ten-month highs after some hesitation as traders digest a more-hawkish-than-expected message from the Federal Reserve.

On the upside, Brent crude needs to overcome the $94.60-$94.70 intermediate barrier on the way towards the mentioned tops where the $96 hurdle will be in focus. In case the selling pressure emerges, the nearest support now arrives around $92.30, followed by the $92 figure.

Bitcoin price climbed to late-August highs earlier in the week before losing some upside momentum on Wednesday. The coin came across resistance in the $27,500 area that capped recovery attempts last month as well. Since then, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has settled around $27,000, deciding on further direction.

Volatility in bitcoin stays low this month, with the US stock market showing relatively calm dynamics. Should the price settle above $27,000 and challenge the $27,500 mentioned hurdle, the BTCUSD pair may rally further. So far, however, this barrier continues to attract sellers due to persisting uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market.

Over the last two weeks, bitcoin has rebounded by nearly 8.5% from its local low seen just below the $25,000 figure earlier in the month. The latest surge created some excitement among cryptocurrency investors, but the market still needs some extra momentum to see more robust and sustained gains in the near term.

$27,000 in focus

Should the pressure intensify any time soon, a break below $27,000 would mark some deterioration in the short-term technical outlook for the digital coin. In this scenario, BTCUSD may threaten the $26,700 zone, followed by the $26,500 intermediate support on the way towards the $25,800 significant level.

However, it looks like the path of least resistance remains to the upside for the time being, with the $27,000 figure in focus ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on monetary policy. The central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, so Powell’s rhetoric would set the tone both for traditional and cryptocurrency markets. Any hawkish hint from the central bank may put stocks and cryptos under pressure while fueling further accent in the USD and Treasury yields.

After a brief dip to three-week lows around $1,910, gold prices attracted demand to bounce on Friday. As a result, the XAUUSD pair turned flat on the weekly charts to erase previous losses incurred amid a stronger dollar.

The greenback rallied to fresh March highs just below the 105.50 zone, being supported by a weaker euro in the aftermath of a so-called “dovish hike” by the ECB. The central bank hiked its key interest rate to a record 4% on Thursday. At the same time, Governing Council members said they do not expect further rate hikes at this time, and that rates may be held steady for some time. The dollar has steadied ahead of the weekend, clinging to the upper end of the extended trading range.

As the buck has slowed its ascent, the yellow metal rallied to fins resistance around $1,1919 where the 20- and 200-DMAs deterred buyers. After an early jump, gold prices stay elevated, trying to hold neutral for the week.

China boost buying interest

The main driver behind the rise in gold prices is encouraging economic data from China that pushed the USD lower against the yuan. China’s industrial output rose 4.5% in August from a year earlier, up from 3.7% in July. Retail sales exceeded forecasts as well, suggesting the country’s economy has stabilized last month. However, the Chinese currency decline during the previous session due to the People’s Bank of China’s announcement of a reserve requirement ratio cut.

Still, the precious metal is unlikely to see sustained gains in the near term as the dollar’s overall strength would continue to cap gains in the gold market. Investors will stay cautious amid the looming potential of more interest rate hikes in the US.