Analytics

EURUSD saw fresh August highs on Wednesday to touch the 1.1055 region before steading. After the spike, the pair has settled around the upper end of the extended trading range, suggesting the prices could target the 1.11 zone next. The immediate resistance now arrives in the 1.1065 zone that could cap the bullish momentum if the selling pressure surrounding the dollar eases in the near term.

As for the greenback itself, the US dollar stays pressures these days after finishing the second bearish week in a row. The DXY thus extends its retreat from local highs seen above the 104.00 figure earlier in the month. On Tuesday, the USD index held above the 101.40 zone to slip back to late-July lows, staying on the defensive today.

As such, the greenback struggles to attract buyers despite low levels, staying below the 102.00 figure since last week. This level represents the immediate upside target for the time being. In a wider picture, the DXY remains downbeat as well, pressured by Fed’s dovish intentions along with weaker-than-expected inflation data.

Hawkish ECB adds to bullishness

Rising expectations for the Fed rate cut will likely continue to pressure the US currency in the coming weeks, suggesting the shared currency may refresh multi-month highs further. A decisive break above the 1.1055 zone would pave the way the August high of 1.1065, followed by the 1.1100 mark last seen in July.

The outlook for the euro remains positive at this stage, especially after ECB Vice President de Guindos said that it’s premature to start easing monetary policy. He also added that the central bank does not foresee a technical recession in the Eurozone. In the near term, the shared currency could derive support from the more hawkish remarks from the ECB.

Oil prices have been trending higher for the fifth session in a row on Friday, advancing after a slide witnessed during the first half of the month. Brent crude is now back around the $80 figure that remains in the market focus following a bounce above $76 a barrel. Earlier in the week, the futures briefly climbed to the $80.60 area that now represents the nearest significant resistance.

The oil market saw a brief slide after Angola said it would exit the OPEC. The country's exit raises questions about the entirety of the alliance. Angola produces around 1.1 million barrels per day. The market reaction was fairly muted as it is one of the smallest producers, so its departure may have a limited impact on global supplies.

In other industry news, the US Energy Information Administration said earlier in the week that crude inventories rose by 2.9 million barrels last week, compared with expectations for a 2.3-million-barrel drop. Gasoline and distillate stocks rose by 2.7 million barrels and 1.5 million barrels, respectively. Furthermore, crude output rose to a record 13.3 million barrels per day, up from the prior all-time high of 13.2 million barrels per day. Still, the bearish report failed to put significant downside pressure on the market, with the overall tone staying upbeat.

Focus on the $80 figure

In part, oil price resilience is due to rising expectations for a rate cut by the Fed. Fresh data showed on Thursday that the final reading of US GDP for the third quarter showed the US economy grew 4.9%, below the consensus estimate of 5.2%, while initial jobless claims rose slightly to 205,000 last week. Fresh signs of a cooling US economy added to expectations for a March rate cut by the Fed, fueling demand for risky assets including oil.

In the near term, Brent crude could spend some time in consolidation mode around the $80 figure before deciding on further direction. On the upside, a decisive break above the psychological level would pave the way towards the $80.60 mentioned barrier, followed by the $81.55 zone. On the flip side, the nearest support arrives around $79.30.

Gold prices hold in positive territory this week due to a weaker dollar. After finding support in the form of the ascending 20-DMA, the XAUUSD pair bounced marginally and has been retaining bullish bias since then.

The US dollar tries to shrug off the selling pressure on Wednesday after a two-day slide. The latest recovery attempt was capped by the 102.65 zone that triggered a local retreat towards the 102.00 area during the previous session. As such, the greenback managed to hold above the psychological level to bounce marginally in recent trading.

Against this backdrop, the precious metal looks slightly upbeat during the early European deals on Wednesday, trading well above the $2,000 psychological level that turned back into support. As such, the technical picture has improved marginally, but the bullion still holds below the $2,050 zone. Should gold regain this immediate significant barrier in the near term, a stronger ascent could be expected.

$2,050 in focus

The bullion continues to derive support from persistent bets that the Fed will cut interest rates earlier next year. According to market expectations, there is a nearly 70% chance for a 25-basis point cut in March. As gold traditionally benefits from a lower interest rate environment, the yellow metal could receive another boost in the short- to medium term amid a weaker dollar and growing optimism over lower interest rates.

In the near term, the XAUUSD pair needs to hold above the mentioned 20-DMA and overcome the $2,050 barrier that caps the ascent towards all-time highs seen earlier this month above $2,100. As the dollar has steadied now, making some recovery attempts, gold may struggle to rally in the immediate term. After some hesitation, however, the metal could retarget the $2,050 region, followed by the $2,075 intermediate hurdle on the way towards $2,100.

After finding support slightly above the $40,000 psychological level, the price of bitcoin bounced to steady at higher levels. The recovery momentum was capped by the $43,500 resistance that spooked buyers and triggered a retreat. Still, the coin holds relatively steady, treading water slightly below the $43,000 figure while trading with a modest bearish bias on Friday after a three-day ascent.

The fact that the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization refrained from a deeper retreat during the recent correction from April 2022 highs, suggests that the bulls stay in the game and could lift the digital asset higher once the momentum reemerges. Also on the positive side, the price stays above the $40,000 significant level that represents the key support zone at this stage.

Cryptos cheer dovish Fed

Earlier in the week, BTC was buoyed by the Fed’s dovish message that sent the dollar lower across the board while also supported risky assets including stocks, commodities and cryptos. Forecasts from central bank officials showed a median consensus of three quarter-point rate cuts coming next year, which, along with a soft landing for the US economy, should be macro tailwind for bitcoin.

As such, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could be further boosted by a broader rally in stocks in anticipation of lower rates. Also, crypto traders remain excited while awaiting spot BTC ETFs approval by the SEC. According to markets, the first approval could come early in 2024.

In the immediate term, however, the bitcoin price could get into a consolidation phase before deciding on further direction depending on industry news and the overall tone in the global financial markets. On the upside, the $43,000 mark now represents the immediate target, followed by the $43,500 zone.

Oil prices fell dramaticaёlly yesterday, staying on the defensive on Wednesday. Brent crude plunged to fresh June lows, this time below the $73 figure. Oil futures extended losses to the $72.30 zone earlier in the day before bouncing marginally to settle around $73 a barrel in recent trading.

Brent crude continues to take cues from persistent worries about oversupply and sluggish demand globally. Also, oil futures are pressured by other factors including fears of a global recession, geopolitical instability, and doubts surrounding oil output cuts agreed by OPEC+ members last month.

In industry news, the API report showed overnight that crude oil inventories in the United States fell last week by nearly 2.5 million barrels after a 600,000-barrel build in the week prior. On the negative side, gasoline inventories rose by 5.8 million barrels and are not just 1% below the five-year average for this time of year. Distillate inventories also rose, with a gain of 300,000 barrels. Now, traders are waiting for the EIA latest weekly oil inventory report that could affect sentiment in the oil market in the near term.

Fed in focus

However, the focus now is on the upcoming Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision due later in the day. The US central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, while Powell could deliver signals of when rate cuts could come. The central bank will likely maintain a more hawkish hold but may struggle to send a sufficiently hawkish message to markets. If so, it could be a bullish signal for oil prices.

Brent crude is now back above the $73 handle that represents the immediate support at this stage. Should the recovery momentum intensify any time soon, oil futures may retarget the $74.50 region, followed by the $76 mark. On the flip side, another dip below $73 would pave the way to fresh multi-month lows should bears reemerge.

The price of gold holds steady and relatively upbeat after refreshing all-time highs above the $2,100 level earlier in the week. On Monday, the metal briefly derailed this level for the first time to register all-time highs in the $2,134 area before retreating towards the $2,030 region amid profit-taking.

As such, the technical picture has improved further, with the bullion holding above the $2,000 figure since the rally waned. Should gold regain the $2,050 immediate barrier in the near term, a stronger ascent could be expected. If the pressure reemerges any time soon, the bullion could see another retreat in the days to come.

So far, gold keeps changing hands around $2,030, trying to decide on further direction. Spot gold is down more than 2% from this week’s opening price. On the weekly timeframes, the bullion looks bearish as a result of a retreat from all-time tops, while a wider picture is more upbeat. On the upside, the immediate significant target is now represented by the $2,050 region, followed by the $2,075 zone.

USD sets the tone

In the immediate term, the yellow metal will be driven by the dollar’s reaction to the upcoming US jobs report that will affect Fed rates expectations. The US report is likely to show that the economy created 180,000 jobs last month, up from +150,000 reported in October. The unemployment rate is set to remain unchanged at 3.9%.

The US dollar is back in positive territory after yesterday’s slide that was triggered by rising jobless claims in the US. The greenback briefly fell below 103.30 before bouncing. Should the employment report disappoint, the USD will resume the decline and could even threaten the 103.00 mark. In this scenario, the XAUUSD pair could retest the $2,050 zone, followed by all-time tops.

The US dollar has steadied around the 104.00 figure, struggling for direction after a two-day rally. The USD index came off came off local lows seen around 102.50 last week for the first time since August. Now, the question is whether the greenback manages to hold onto gains and avoid another sell-off, especially as risk sentiment keeps improving in the global financial markets.

European markets opened higher on Wednesday, with the regional Stoxx 600 index gaining 0.3% to start the session as investors added to bets of ECB rate cuts next year. US stock index futures are also slightly higher with S&P 500 futures up 0.2%. Overall risk sentiment is looking more positive in the global financial markets, thus capping demand for the safe-haven USD.

So far, the currency looks fairly upbeat after mixed economic data out of the United States. The data on job openings in October showed slowing demand in the labor market, while ISM Services PMI exceeded consensus and previous figures by coming in at 52.7. ADP private payrolls numbers will be released later in the day, followed by a key Friday’s US jobs report that will affect further sentiment surrounding the buck.

Bullish continuation possible

On the upside, the immediate barrier arrives around 104.20, followed by the 104.55 mark and the 105.00 figure last seen in mid-November. The bullish continuation is possible if the upcoming economic reports surprise to the upside. On the flip side, the nearest support is now represented by the 103.55 zone, followed by the 103.20 intermediate support on the way towards the 103.00 figure.

In a wider picture, growing Fed rate cut expectations will continue to cap demand for the US currency if the central bank delivers a less hawkish tone during tis month’s meeting. Otherwise, USD bulls may get back into the game.

The price of bitcoin has been clinging to the upper end of the local range these days, oscillating around the $38,000 figure after peaking at $38,350 earlier in the week for the first time since May 2022. Despite the rejection from the mentioned highs, the BTCUSD pair stays around $38,000, suggesting downside risks are limited at this stage.

The recent spike in bitcoin price was in part due to anticipation of a pause in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes as the US economy is showing signs of decelerating. Earlier in the week, the Fed official Christopher Waller raised the possibility Tuesday that the Fed could decide to cut its benchmark interest rate as early as spring if inflation keeps declining steadily. Meanwhile, the data on Thursday showed that the annual Core PCE Price Index rose 3.5%, matching expectations and a slightly softer pace than the 3.7% increase recorded in September.

$40,000 is the next bullish target

Should Fed rate cut expectations continue to rise in the near term, the digital coin may see fresh long-term highs in the weeks to come. If the price confirms a decisive break above $38,000 in the near term, buyers will shift their focus towards the $40,000 psychological level last seen in April 2022.

In the coming days, however, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization could continue to hesitate around the current levels before deciding on further direction after some consolidation. Industry sentiment looks neutral-to-positive for the time being, with investors awaiting spot bitcoin ETF approval.

In the immediate term, BTCUSD needs to overcome the $38,200 zone in order to retest the recent peaks. In case of a retreat, the $37,600-$37,500 zone would represent the nearest significant support, followed by the $37,000 figure.

After four days of losses, oil prices surged on Tuesday amid rising fears of supply tightness as a storm in the Black Sea region disrupted oil exports from Kazakhstan and Russia. According to the official data, the storm has disrupted up to 2 million barrels per day of oil exports from the two countries.

Also, traders await a crucial decision by OPEC+ due on Thursday after delaying the meeting from last week. The alliance will hold an online ministerial meeting to discuss 2024 production targets. Expectations of possible deeper output cuts have diminished since the group delayed its meeting to November 30.

In other news, the API report showed overnight that US crude inventories fell by less than expected last week, though snapped a four-week streak of gains. In particular, crude inventories fell by 817,0000 barrels for the week ended November 24 after a build of 9.1 million barrels for the previous week.

Outlook more upbeat but still fragile

Brent crude surged from local lows seen just above the $79 figure at the start of the week to regain the $80 psychological level. So far, the barrel has peaked around the $82 handle that represents the immediate upside target at this stage.

In the immediate term, oil prices could stay elevated due to a combination of a weaker US dollar, worries about Kazakh and Russia oil output, and positive expectations on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting.

In a wider picture, Brent is trading higher for the second week in a row, recovering from July lows seen around $76.60 earlier in the month. Now that the futures are back above the $80 mark, the short-term outlook looks more upbeat. However, downside risks continue to persist in anticipation of the alliance decision. Should exporters refrain from deeper output cuts, traders will be disappointed.

Gold prices hold steady in muted trading session on Friday, with markets lacking cues as US stocks were closed for Thanksgiving. Stock index futures were marginally positive in early pre-market deals. Wall Street equities will come back for a half day of trading today. European equity markets were slightly lower in early trading in lighter trading conditions amid the Thanksgiving holiday.

Earlier in the week, the XAUUSD pair briefly saw a short-lived jump to local highs above the $2,000 psychological level. In the process, the metal regained the directionless 20-DMA that turned back into support. As such, the technical picture has improved again even as the bullion is now slightly below the $2,000 figure.

After last week’s brief dip to the $1,930 zone for the first time in nearly a month, the XAUUSD bounced back above the two key hurdles represented by the 20-DMA and the $2,000 mark but failed to confirm a break above the latter eventually.

XAU directionless along with dollar

Should gold overcome the $2,000 figure in the near term, a stronger rally could be expected. If the pressure reemerges any time soon, the bullion could see another retreat in the days to come. On the weekly timeframes, the bullion stays upbeat, trading in positive territory after last week’s strong recovery. On the upside, the immediate significant target is now represented by the $2,007 region that capped the ascent this week.

Meanwhile, the US dollar holds relatively steady after the recent rejection from the levels above the 104.00 figure. The USD index has settled around 103.75 in early European deals, trading under some selling pressure following three positive sessions in a row. On the weekly charts, the greenback has settled in negative territory, struggling to attract renewed demand after last week’s solid losses.